This article contains most of the important information you need to know about Develop Schedule process in order to answer questions related to this topic in the PMP Exam, I recommend you review this type of articles 1 week before your exam date, all information mentioned are based on PMBOK Guide 6th edition and PMP Exam Prep 9th edition for Rita Maclhy’s, ITTO refers to Inputs, Tools & Techniques and outputs.
This process is a part of Planning Process group and Risk Management Knowledge Area with the following ITTO’s
Inputs:
- Project Management Plan (Requirements , Risk , Cost , Schedule , Quality , Recourses Management Plans , Scope, Cost , Schedule Baselines )
- Project Documents ( Cost Estimates ,Duration Estimates ,Assumptions Log , Issue Log , Lessons Learned Register ,Stakeholder Register , Requirements Documentation , Resources Requirements )
- Procurement Documents
- Agreements
- Enterprise Environmental Factors
- Organization Process Assets.
Tools & Techniques:
- Expert Judgment
- Data Gathering ( Checklist , Brainstorming , Interviews )
- Data Analysis ( Root Cause Analysis , Assumption and constraint Analysis, SWOT Analysis , Document Analysis )
- Interpersonal and Team Skills ( Influencing )
- Prompt Lists
- Meetings
Outputs:
- Risk Register
- Risk Report
- Project Document updates ( Assumption Log , Issue Log , Lessons Learned Register )
- Objectives of this process are to identify and record a long list of risks , make sure all risks are in Cause-Risk-Effect format ( Metalanguage) and understands all listed risks.
- Usually risks listed in this process included details such as potential risk owner, triggers and potential responses.
- As a professional Project manager a good time should be spent to gather information and collect requirements from key stakeholders , have a well defined scope as unclear requirements or scope is a Major risk of the project that may have a negative cost and schedule impact .
- Meeting experts face to face is a perfect tool as meetings virtually or using email for risk management decreases the quantity and quality of risks identified.
- Any risk with 80% or above probability should be treated as a fact .
- A Good tool used to differentiate risks from facts is use the casue-risk-effect format for naming risks .
- Risks effects are usually related to project objectives, constraints and tolerances.
- Critical success factors of identify Risk process includes the following :
- Early identification, it enables ley decisions to take maximum account of risks inherent in the project.
- Iterative identification, the frequency of iteration is defined in plan risk management process , and it can be done at key milestones and on significant changes.
- Emergent Identification, As risks in nature can be identified anytime.
- Comprehensive Identification, As a broad range should be used.
- Opportunities to be considered not only threats.
- Multiple perspectives, it should be done with key stakeholders from different perspectives.
- Risks linked to project objectives, each identified risk must be linked to at least on project objective.
- Complete Risk statement, Each identified risk should be clearly stated in the metalanguage format.
- Ownership and level of detail, each risk owner should be identified with detailed description of his role , risk triggers should be mentioned as well.
- Objectivity , All biases should be recognized and addresses as early as possible , biases effect on risk management should be controlled and managed proactively.
- A Well-defined risk is written in the Metalanguage format , Cause-risk-Effect , it should be well worded and specific to the project.
- Opportunities should be identified to balance out the negative occurrences ( Threats ) , as well as to take advantage of additional benefits to the project , a separate list of opportunities should be created.
- While identify risks the project manager should look at the assumptions list , it is a good source of risk.
- Risks identified are recorded usually in 2 forms , Sticky Notes & Forms..
- Risks could be identified during checklists, it is a great tool during initiating , before a charter is created and before formal risk management begins .
- Note that risks that are identified are less likely to occur as they changed from unknown unknowns to known unknowns.
- Major tools and techniques to identify risks :
- Prompt List , Generic list of risk categories , used as a starting point to customize a list of risk categories most relevant to your project, while identifying risk using categories , the risk category might be inserted in the Cause column of the risk format , make sure there is no forgotten risk category from the prompt list you are using.
- Risk Breakdown Structure, which arrange risks though category .
- Historical Records, Looking at records from past projects as it will save time in risk management.
- Review Project documents, making sure all project documents are available.
- Brainstorming, meeting to come up with ideas or solve a problem, it help participants build on each other idea , a brainstorming session should be conducted in with 2 scribes , one to facilitate and one to record ideas , it can build a very long list of risks quickly .
- Conduct a pre mortem , meeting to come up with ideas, the group of participants are asked to imagine that the project is completed or terminated , and it failed to achieve one or more objective, then they will start mentioning why the project was failed , they should imagine the project is a success to list opportunities.
- Affinity diagram, Risks identified from other tools are grouped in this tool and categorized as per similarities , each group is given a title.
- Expert Interviews, this tool can be done in all steps of risk management processes , It can be done through emails, meetings, letters and telephone calls , the best interview could be done with 3 team members, one ask questions, one records answers and one looks for nonverbal communication of the stakeholder.
- Nominal Group technique, mainly used when you need to gain a group opinion not individual, it helps gaining the group buy in .
- Delphi Technique, to obtain agreement on what risks exists in the project, or on the quantitative risk analysis results.
- Cause and effect Diagram, used to evaluate causes of risk events, helps team members visually determine potential and sub causes
- Failure Mood and effect Analysis / Fault tree analysis , especially used for engineering design , looks for failure modes ( The ways a product or project may fail ) , it designs a failure out of the product, each failure mode will have a list of risks , the risks with the highest Risk Priority number ( RPN) will be selected as risks , RPN = Sensitivity * Occurrences * Detection rate
- SWOT Analysis , Looks at the project strengths and weaknesses and therefore looks at threats and opportunities.
- Force Field Analysis .
- Influence Diagrams.
- System Dynamics
- As a professional Project Manager you should never depend on one method to identify risks , you should use a combination of methods .
- You know that you should stop identify risks in two cases :
- When new identified risks seems stupid.
- Ask the team to rate how confident they are about identified threats and opportunities and check the rating , if it is too low you should continue.
- Identify Risk Process results with Risk Register, It’s the place where most of risk information is kept , it’s part of the project documents and it will be updated after finishing each risk management process.
- In this phase the produced risk register will results in the following information:
- List of Risks.
- Root Causes of the Risks.
- Potential risk owners ( May be proposed and noted here , assigned officially in Plan risk response Process )
- List of Potential responses , potential ones only as there will be a process of Planning risk responses.
- Updated Risk Categories.
